Don’t let the huge foreign exchange reserves erase the courage to move forward-8l9840

Don’t let the huge foreign exchange reserves to obliterate the courage to move forward the opinion leaders of sina finance (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Xu Weihong has been integrated into the world economic China, the best means of its fight against deflation is the active devaluation of the RMB — the central bank a huge amount of foreign exchange reserves is relying on the stability of the RMB exchange rate in the strategy, but it is not our exchange rate policy the loss of initiative excuse or burden. Don’t let the huge foreign exchange reserves erase the courage. In January 2016, the world capital market was filled with worries about the overall decline in asset prices caused by the Fed’s interest rate hike. At the Davos forum, has been relegated to second tier Soros lead China Chinese sing the air tight, capital market participants already have expressed nerve, long-term bullish on the Chinese economy and capital market confidence. Soros in the face of economic transformation China, both the biggest challenge is the economic downward pressure of deflation and capital flight under the background of currency devaluation pressure. Worthy of concern is that many of our empirical economists although "fooling", but often these two problems are discussed separately, also trying to find the answers through the historical experience of other developing countries, and did not see the special economic China, relevance and behind the two problems. In my opinion, Chinese economy as emerging economies only a volume comparable to the US and Europe, is still the next five to ten years of world economic growth is the most stable source of potential — domestic middle-aged generation consumption upgrade and the younger generation of new consumption habits, let China service industry growth potential. Therefore, the transformation of China’s macro economic growth mode is not a "mirror moon or water flower", but a clear direction of investment and consumption transformation. Where does the market panic come from? Economics is a social science, the study of human behavior law – human fear of unfamiliar prospects, is the most common option for economic crisis research. Have to admit that economic decisions China considerable, have been used over the past thirty years, export-oriented economic growth mode, the habit of incremental asset monetization of the government leading investment pattern, is a strange and fear to rely on domestic consumer oriented growth mode. In the model of behavior, they clenched hard to accumulate foreign currency reserves, ready to once again save the macro economy through government investment, their eyes in jeopardy. This is obviously with the content with staying where one is cautious, advocated by the central supply side reform is to draw further apart. Secretary General Xi Jinping’s theory of "institutional confidence and development confidence" is not an empty slogan, but a strategic guide to China’s economic policy orientation. After all, has been integrated into the world economic Chinese, the best means of its fight against deflation is the active devaluation of the RMB — the central bank [micro-blog] a huge amount of foreign exchange reserves is the strategy of relying on the stability of the RMB exchange rate, but it is not our exchange rate policy to lose support of the initiative or word burden. On the other hand, Chinese economy huge volume, domestic demand growth potential is not only the guarantee of RMB gold, is the biggest guarantee of economic recovery in Europe rebound. Once China enters deflation, it will increase the price of international bulk commodities".

别让巨额外汇储备磨灭了前进的勇气   文 新浪财经意见领袖(微信公众号kopleader)专栏作家 许维鸿   已经融入世界经济的中国,对抗本国通货紧缩的最佳手段就是人民币主动贬值――央行巨量的外汇储备在战略上是人民币汇率稳定的依托,但绝不是我们汇率政策丧失主动性的托词或累赘。 别让巨额外汇储备磨灭了勇气   2016年1月的世界资本市场,弥漫着对联储加息带来资产价格全面下跌的担忧。在达沃斯论坛上,已经退居二线的索罗斯带头唱空中国,本来就已经神经紧绷的中国资本市场人士,纷纷出来表达对中国经济和资本市场长期看好的信心。   索罗斯口中面临经济转型的中国,最大的两大挑战是经济下行的通货紧缩压力和资本外逃背景下的本币贬值压力。值得担心的是,我们很多经验主义的经济学家虽然“嘴硬”,但是往往把这两个问题分开讨论,还试图通过其他发展中国家的历史经验寻找答案,并没有看到中国经济的特殊性,以及这两个问题背后的关联性。   在我看来,中国经济作为唯一一个体量堪比欧美的新兴经济体,依然是未来五到十年世界经济增长最稳定的潜力来源――国内中年一代的消费升级和年轻一代的新消费习惯,让中国的服务业增长潜力巨大。因此,中国的宏观经济增长方式转型,并不是“镜中月、水中花”,而是有着明确方向的投资和消费转型。   那市场恐慌气氛源于何处呢?经济学是一门社会科学,研究的是人类的行为规律――人类对陌生前景的恐惧,是经济危机研究的最常见选项。不得不承认,相当多的中国经济决策者,已经习惯过去三十年外向型经济增长方式,习惯了“增量资产货币化”的政府主导投资模式,对于依靠国内消费者为主的增长方式是陌生而恐惧的。在行为模式上,他们紧紧地攥着辛辛苦苦积攒的外汇储备,随时准备再次通过政府投资,挽救他们眼中岌岌可危的宏观经济。   这种故步自封的谨小慎微,显然跟中央倡导的供给侧改革是背道而驰的。习近平总书记所说的“制度自信和发展自信”,绝不是空洞的口号,而是对中国经济政策导向的战略指引。说白了,已经融入世界经济的中国,对抗本国通货紧缩的最佳手段就是人民币主动贬值――央行[微博]巨量的外汇储备在战略上是人民币汇率稳定的依托,但绝不是我们汇率政策丧失主动性的托词或累赘。   另一方面,中国经济体量巨大,内需增长潜力不仅是人民币的含金保障,更是欧美经济体复苏反弹的最大保障。中国经济一旦进入通货紧缩,将加大国际大宗商品价格“硬着陆”冲击波,最终把欧美经济再次拖入经济萎缩的泥潭。我们姑且不谈索罗斯是否真的想做空中国,至少欧美货币当局绝不愿看到中国经济硬着陆,更不愿看到人民币引领亚洲国家货币的“竞争性贬值”。   我猜绝大部分国际“大宏观”对冲基金,对形势应该是心知肚明的,所谓做空人民币“战术”,只是利用一些人面对汇率机制转型短期内的心理恐惧,赚一把就走。从技术上讲,相对于中国经济总量,人民币离岸市场规模十分有限,难以形成虚拟经济与实体经济的联动,这跟印尼、菲律宾等在亚洲金融危机中受冲击的机理是不同的,切不可盲目比照,这也是中国经济的独特优势。而且,这些国际投机资本手段老辣,如果真的想大规模做空中国,哪有明目张胆公开叫板的,都是长期准备、然后趁你不备突然发难,我们切不可自己吓唬自己。   真正值得我们提防的是,短期人民币主动性贬值,虽然可以有效引导通货紧缩预期,但不是长久之计。对于普通老百姓而言,在名义收入不变的情况下,消费商品通货紧缩不仅不是问题,反而可以提高实际生活水平;人民币的贬值也与绝大多数国内消费者无关,只有那些海外旅游者和“海淘”一族,才担心人民币贬值带来的福利损失。通货紧缩的真正风险是有效投资紧缩,最终造成工业产能萎缩,造成资本外流,长期抑制人民币资产价格。   为了应对美国次贷危机,中国的“四万亿”投资计划带来全面的房地产投资过剩和房价透支,房地产去库存艰难而痛苦;A股也在逐渐失去过去二十年一直享受的相对于美股和港股的估值溢价,归根到底就是市场担心当中国经济“通货膨胀邂逅本币贬值”,经济体内的有效投资会不足。但这跟7年前的情况完全不同。   以史为鉴,虽然世界经济风云变幻,中国经济发展的硬道理没有变,那就是政府对市场经济应该尽早“放手”,让市场真正成为资源配置的决定性因素。正如新年伊始《人民日报》撰文指出的,过去二十年政府补贴的行业绝大多数都成为产能过剩行业,没有一个新兴行业的龙头民营企业是靠政府扶持成功的――中国经济有效投资并不缺钱,即便不算依然丰盈的外汇储备,国内资本积累早就足以支撑转型,缺的无非是各级政府真正落实中央供给侧改革的主动性和积极性。   (原载于中国证券报)   (本文作者介绍:中航证券首席经济学家。)   本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用,请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。相关的主题文章: