Ren Zeping the status quo, countermeasures, risks and investment opportunities of deleveraging 妖孽魔妃不好惹

Ren Zeping: the current situation, measures to leverage risk and investment opportunities, sina finance Level2:A shares of sina finance: App speed Kanpan live on-line blogger to tutor guidance: deleveraging is one of the five major tasks of supply side reform, through the study of Chinese departments and industry leverage situation, analysis of causes, high leverage measures the deleveraging, proposed to leverage the opportunities and risks in the process of. Abstract: 1) the leverage ratio of China’s departments: the enterprise sector is too high. By the end of 2015, the proportion of government debt to GDP was 56.5%, 39.9% to the residents, 143.5% to non-financial enterprises and 21% to the financial sector. The leverage ratio of the whole society is 260.8%, and the leverage ratio of the real economy is 239.8%. From the international comparison, Chinese real economic leverage in the middle level, but the non-financial corporate leverage ratio is the highest in major economies, which reflects the urgency of China currently overcapacity severity and the supply side reform. 2) China’s industry sector leverage: traditional high, emerging low. According to the data of the listed companies, as of the 3 quarter of 2015, the financial sector (banks, non bank) and cyclical industries (construction, real estate, steel, electricity and other public utilities) the asset liability ratio is high, and the emerging industry (pharmaceutical, electronic components, computer, media etc.) and consumer services (catering and tourism agriculture, food and beverage, etc.) the low asset liability ratio. 3) causes of high leverage: 4 trillion stimulus + SOE zombie. 08 years, 4 trillion stimulus since the formation of new capacity, the lack of new demand support, resulting in serious overcapacity in traditional industries. The government takes into account the steady growth and preserving employment, the inefficient state-owned enterprises, the implicit guarantee of Administrative Subsidy, policy support, resulting in a large number of enterprises overcapacity stiff and dead, excess capacity not clearing, state-owned enterprises leverage ratio continues to rise, a lot of money deposited in inefficient sector, corporate profits continued to deteriorate, declining economic growth, the stock market long walk bear, while the accumulation of debt credit risk rising systemic risk in the economy increasing. 4) to leverage measures: to promote the supply side reforms, take the market and administrative means a combination of clearing capacity, improve the traditional industry supply and demand and enhance the degree of concentration, promote the upgrading of products, reduce the invalid administrative subsidy to overcapacity zombie companies. Reduce the social burden of deleveraging enterprises, do a good job placement and bad disposal, hold the bottom line of systemic risk does not occur. 5) deleveraging risk management: strong reform + wide currency. May face the risk premium soaring out deleveraging process, a large number of enterprise bankruptcy, the unemployment rate rise, the width of the central bank’s monetary scenario need to calm the panic. The current public policy Chinese government resources rich, by the end of 2015, the deposit reserve rate of 17.5% large deposits of financial institutions, the foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion and 300 billion, fiscal deposits 3 trillion and 400 billion yuan, enough to cope with a magnitude of the financial crisis, both the exterior impact or explosion. 6) deleveraging opportunities: Based on the reform of the supply side

任泽平:去杠杆的现状、应对措施、风险与投资机会 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导   导读:   去杠杆是供给侧改革五大任务之一,通过研究中国各部门、分行业杠杆率现状,剖析高杠杆的成因、去杠杆的应对措施,提出去杠杆过程中的机会和风险。   摘要:   1)中国各部门的杠杆率:企业部门过高。截止2015年末,政府部门债务占GDP比重为56.5%,居民部门为39.9%,非金融企业部门为143.5%,金融部门为21.0%。全社会杠杆率为260.8%,实体经济杠杆率为239.8%。从国际比较来看,中国实体经济的杠杆率处于中游水平,但非金融企业的杠杆率是主要经济体中最高的,这反映了中国目前产能过剩的严重程度和供给侧改革的迫切性。   2)中国企业分行业杠杆率:传统高,新兴低。根据上市公司数据,截止2015年3季度,金融业(银行、非银)和周期性行业(建筑、房地产、钢铁、电力及公共事业等)的资产负债率处于高位,而新兴产业(医药、电子元器件、计算机、传媒等)和消费服务业(餐饮旅游、农林渔牧、食品饮料等)的资产负债率较低。   3)高杠杆成因:4万亿刺激+国企刚兑僵尸。08年4万亿刺激以来形成的新增产能缺少新需求支撑,致使传统行业出现严重产能过剩。政府顾及稳增长、保就业等,对低效国企隐性担保、行政补贴、政策扶持等,致使大量产能过剩企业僵而不死,过剩产能无法出清,国有企业杠杆率不断攀升,大量资金沉淀在低效部门,企业利润持续恶化,经济增速不断下滑,股市长期走熊,同时积累的债务信用风险不断攀升,整个经济体的系统性风险不断增加。   4)去杠杆措施:推动供给侧改革,采取市场和行政手段相结合的方式出清产能,改善传统行业供需和提高集中度,推动产品升级,减少对产能过剩的僵尸企业的无效行政补贴。降低去杠杆企业的社会负担,做好就业安置和不良处置,守住不发生系统性风险的底线。   5)去杠杆风险处置:强改革+宽货币。出清去杠杆过程中可能面临风险溢价飙升,企业大量破产,失业率攀升的情况,这种情景需要央行的宽货币来平复恐慌情绪。当前中国政府的公共政策资源丰富,截止2015年底,大型存款类金融机构的存款准备金率17.5%,外汇储备3.3万亿美元,财政存款3.4万亿元,足以应对一次有量级的金融危机,无论是外部冲击型还是内爆型。   6)去杠杆机会:根据供给侧改革的国际经验和中国现状趋势,投资机会主要来自于股权融资领域的新兴行业,其中领跑的行业是高端装备制造业、TMT、互联网、医药医疗、新材料、休闲服务等领域。而依赖债权融资的传统周期性行业,在产能出清,供需和资产负债表改善后,剩者为王的优质公司和从国企改革中脱颖而出的公司,存在潜在的投资机会。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: