Cao Yuanzheng China’s economic l trend is approaching the end of the vertical bar honeys中国官网

Cao Yuanzheng: China economic type L trend has been close to the vertical bar at the end of August 25th Sina Financial News News, today summer Yabuli Forum opened in Xi’an, Renmin University of China professor Cao Yuanzheng said at the forum, Chinese economy showed "L" trend, while the lever has peaked, high lever is not sustainable, but the PPI data show that the economy has stabilized Chinese. At present, China’s economy L is close to the end of the vertical bar, and then it will continue to be flat. Potential growth is about 6% in the future. "High leverage is unsustainable."." Cao Yuanzheng said that after 2008, leverage growth rate is very fast every year. Recently, M1 and M2 have been expanding, and investment in enterprises has declined. M2 growth in July, but the 98% is personal credit, corporate leverage at the top. The lever has peaked, enterprises are not in debt." It emphasizes that if the leverage is not sustainable, or increase the possibility of financial risks. But it is worth noting that China’s economy has stabilized." Cao Yuanzheng said, PPI narrowed, enterprises will have cash flow and other indicators show that China’s economic L shape trend, is already at the end of the vertical bar, and then will continue to be flat. "I think the potential growth rate is about 6%." When asked about the trend of the exchange rate, Cao Yuanzheng said that the exchange rate change is the change of relative value. It believes that China’s inflation rate is low, and the purchasing power has not changed. At the same time, the renminbi is appreciating relative to other currencies, only depreciating the dollar. We can only say that the rate of RMB appreciation cannot keep pace with the appreciation of the US dollar." Speaking of the U.S. interest rate hike, Cao Yuanzheng said that when the world entered the low interest rate era, the United States can not escape, therefore, this year the U.S. interest rate hike possibility is 0. "But what I’m most worried about is the cycle between capacity and deleveraging, and the risks are bigger if you don’t handle them well." Cao Yuanzheng said that China’s economy at this stage the most measures should be taken, that is, stable leverage, to capacity. (Sina Finance Li Ting from Xi’an) into the Sina Financial shares bar discussion

曹远征:中国经济L型走势已接近竖杠末端   新浪财经讯 8月25日消息,今日亚布力夏季论坛在西安开幕,中国人民大学教授曹远征在论坛上表示,中国经济呈“L”型走势,而杠杆已经到顶,高杠杆不可持续,但PPI等数据显示,中国经济已企稳。目前中国经济L型已处于接近竖杠末端位置,之后或将持续为平。未来潜在增长或是6%左右。   “高杠杆不可持续。”曹远征表示,2008后,杠杆率每年增速很快。近来M1与M2不断扩大,企业投资下降。7月M2增长,但98%都是个人信贷,说明企业杠杆到顶了。“杠杆已经到顶,企业都不敢负债了。”其强调,若一旦杠杆不可持续,或加大金融风险可能性。   “但值得关注的是,中国经济已经企稳。”曹远征表示,PPI收窄,企业会有现金流等指标显示,中国经济L形趋势,目前已经处于竖杠的末端,之后或将持续为平的。“我认为,潜在增长率或持续在6%左右。”   当被问及汇率走势时,曹远征称,汇率变化是相对价值变化。其认为,中国通货膨胀率低,购买力并没有发生变化。同时,人民币相对于其他货币都在升值,只是对美元贬值。“只能说,人民币升值的速度赶不上美元升值的速度。”谈到美国加息问题,曹远征表示,全球进入低利率时代,美国也逃脱不了,因此,今年美国加息可能性为0。   “但目前我最担心的,是去产能和去杠杆之间的循环,两者若处理不好,风险会比较大。”曹远征表示,中国经济现阶段最该采取措施,就是稳杠杆,去产能。(新浪财经 李婷 发自西安) 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: