后市下行压力加大 异世龙神

Hong Futures: the downside risks to the client to view the latest quotes, fundamental analysis, 1 iron ore supply side: contradictions accumulated four mines to maintain high yield from the historical data, four foreign mining production showed obvious seasonal factors, the first half was lower than that of the second half of the year, so the first half of the iron ore production the stone will increase obviously. Data from the current show, the four major mines, Australia’s three major mines this year, no new project put into production, mainly concentrated in the Brazil River Valley S11D. In the second quarter conference call, Vale announced its latest progress, the current project mining and processing plant to complete 90% degree of logistics 70% degree of completion, the railway line completed 92% projects, in December this year will be officially put into operation of a production line, January 2017 officially started selling. In addition, although the capacity replacement plan vale last year the total output has declined, but the gradual improvement of the maderia port transportation line makes the shipment is not affected, the plan to the inventory target is carried out according to plan, so although it may in the lower edge of the target range of 3.4-3.5 million tons of production this year, but sales are expected to breakthrough 3.4 tons, a record high. And from the point of view of shipments, Brazil and Australia to China’s iron ore also presents obvious periodicity. From the current data show that iron ore shipments in August is at a relatively low level, so in the second half of foreign mines in order to increase profits will inevitably increase the amount of iron ore shipments, the expected shipments in September should be about 93 million tons level. 2, the port inventory fell, but still in high import ore port inventory, as of September 23rd, port iron ore inventory 102 million 720 thousand tons, a decline of about 1.24%, port inventory maintained high operation. The amount of hair, because of the introduction of the new transport policy, the amount of the latest data for the 2 million 520 thousand tons, down 178 thousand tons more than last week, a decline of 6.6%. 3, demand side: Steel began to loss, the market downward pressure increased       in recent years due to the constant adjustment of coking plant, coking coal coke spot prices continue to rise, leading to the profits of iron and steel enterprises gradually transferred to the upstream coking plant. From the reform and Development Commission to stabilize coal supply conference results also can be seen that the current coal industry "276" policy will not change, but there will be fine-tuning. And upstream costs will also increase the profitability of the downstream steel enterprises. As of September 23rd, the national profit steel plant was 68.1%, 12.27% lower than last week, the range was 15.3%, Hebei profit steel plant was 64.38%, 17.81% lower than last week, the amplitude was 21.7%. As the demand for iron ore decreases, iron ore prices will have downside risks. Two, the operation proposed iron ore market in the supply and demand side gradually reduce the contradiction pattern, downward trend or will continue. Technically, the 30 day moving average and the 60 day moving average are all under pressure, and it is recommended to keep short strategy below 420. Hongye. 弘业期货:铁矿矛盾积累 面临下行风险 客户端 查看最新行情   一、基本面分析   1、供给端:四大矿山产量维持高位   从历史数据上来看,国外四大矿山的产量呈现出明显的季节性因素,上半年的产量低于下半年,所以铁矿石下半年的产量会明显增多。从目前得到的数据显示,四大矿山中,澳洲的三大矿山今年并无新项目投产,主要集中在巴西淡水河谷的S11D。在第二季度的电话会议中,淡水河谷公布了其最新进度,目前项目矿区和选矿厂完成度达到90%,物流点完成度70%,铁路线完成度92%,项目将于今年12月份正式投产一条产线,2017年1月正式开始销售。此外,虽然淡水河谷去年开始的产能置换计划使得其总产量有所回落,但日趋完善的马德里亚港运输线使得其发运并未受影响,其计划的去库存目标正按计划进行,因此虽然其今年产量可能在3.4-3.5亿吨目标区间的下沿,但销售量预计能突破3.4亿吨,创下新高。   而从发货量上来看,巴西以及澳洲发往我国的铁矿石也呈现出明显的周期性。从目前的数据显示,8月份铁矿石的发货量处于相对低的水平,所以下半年国外矿山为了提高利润必然增加铁矿石的发货量,预计9月份的发货量应当在9300万吨左右的水平。   2、港口库存回落,但仍然处于高位   进口矿港口库存方面,截至9月23日,港口铁矿库存10272万吨,环比下降1.24%左右,港口库存维持高位运行。疏港量发方面,由于新的运输政策的实行,疏港量最新的数据为252万吨,比上周下降17.8万吨,下降幅度为6.6%。   3、需求端:钢厂开始亏损,后市下行压力加大      近期由于焦化厂的不断调价,焦煤焦炭现货价格不断调升,导致钢铁企业利润逐渐向上游焦化厂进行转移。从发改委稳定煤炭供应的会议结果也可以看出,目前煤炭行业的“276”政策并不会改变,只是会出现微调。而上游成本的上升也会倒逼下游钢铁企业的利润。截止到9月23日,全国盈利钢厂为68.1%,比上周减少12.27%,幅度为15.3%,河北盈利钢厂为64.38%,比上周减少17.81%,幅度为21.7%。随着钢厂对铁矿石需求的逐渐减少,铁矿石价格就会存在下行的风险。   二、操作建议   铁矿石后市在供给充足和需求端逐渐减少的矛盾格局下,下行趋势或将延续。从技术上看,30日均线和60日均线上方压力重重,建议420以下维持做空策略。   弘业期货 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: