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The CPI data of SEB material at $FX168 to zero inflation summer news to benefit from the Fed is expected to raise interest rates, the dollar in the past two years of outstanding performance, but the recent market turmoil has weakened further fed rate hike expectations, the dollar against all major currencies to almost 1 months after the devaluation. Us CPI data later Friday will attract investors’ eyes, and if the data unexpectedly falls short of expectations, it may further hit the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates in the year, thereby causing the US dollar to suffer setbacks. The dollar has fallen 2.4% against the euro so far in 2016, while the yen has fallen by 5.1%. At present, the trend of interest rate futures shows that the Fed’s interest rate increase rate is less than 50%. Beijing time Friday (February 19th) 21:30, the United States will release the consumer price index (CPI) in January. Economists believe that consumer prices fell for second consecutive months in January as gasoline prices continued to slide. SEB (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken; abbreviation: SEB) on Friday ahead of the CPI data the author. The article points out that the price of gasoline will continue to downward pressure on the US CPI data in January and February. The base effect will raise the annual CPI change this month, but then inflation will go down again. The bank expects inflation to hit zero this summer. SEB wrote: "although wage inflation is beginning to show some signs of improvement, is it necessary to confirm it in the next few months?. We expect that the drop in commodities and a stronger dollar will rise in 2016 to offset the wage pressure." The article concludes that the inflation swap rate indicates that inflation will go down and continue the downward trend for a long time. Inflation has been moderate in the past few years, especially in recent oil prices, and inflation has been exaggerated again. With oil prices stabilizing and job markets improving, Fed policymakers expect inflation to return to its designated target level. The expected median value of economists surveyed showed that the monthly rate of CPI rose by 0.1% in the United States after 1 rose, and last month it dropped by 0.1%. However, the core CPI will be more concerned, the monthly rate is expected to rise by 0.2%, December QoQ increase of 0.1%, less than expected; annual rate of increase of 2.1%. (source: FX168 financial network) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes released on Wednesday showed, many Fed officials (FED) believes that the global economic slowdown and turmoil, the risks faced the prospect of economic growth is on the rise. According to the minutes, participants acknowledged that further decline in energy prices and continued appreciation of the dollar could mean that inflation would take longer than expected to rise to 2%. The recent global economic slowdown and the stock market plunge, investors more and more expect the Fed will give up in December last year issued this year may raise interest rates for the four time that the minutes of the meeting supported the above views. Commo theory

美元紧盯美CPI数据 SEB料通胀夏季降至零   FX168讯 受益于美联储加息预期,美元在过去近两年的时间内表现出色,但近期市场动荡已经削弱了联储进一步加息的预期,美元兑几乎所有主要货币在过去1个月内出现贬值。周五稍晚的美国CPI数据将吸引汇市投资者的目光,若数据意外逊于预期,可能进一步打击美联储年内加息的预期,从而令美元遭挫。   2016年迄今为止美元兑欧元下挫2.4%,而兑日元则大跌5.1%。目前利率期货走势表明,美联储年内加息的概率已经不到50%。   北京时间周五(2月19日)21:30,美国将公布1月消费者物价指数(CPI)。经济学家们认为,因汽油价格继续下滑,美国1月消费者物价料连续第二个月下滑。   瑞典北欧斯安银行(Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken;简称:SEB)周五撰文对美国CPI数据进行前瞻。   文章指出,汽油价格将继续对美国1月和2月的CPI数据构成下行压力。基数效应将会提升本月CPI的年率变化值,但此后通胀率将再度走低。该行预计,通胀率会在今年夏季触及零。   SEB写道:“尽管薪资通胀终于开始一些显现提升的迹象,但是否转向需要在未来数月内得到证实。我们预计,大宗商品下滑和美元走强将在2016年抵消薪资上升的压力。”   文章最后提到,通胀掉期率表明通胀会走低,延续长期以来的下行趋势。   过去数年,美国通胀一直表现温和,尤其是在近期油价持续暴跌之下,通胀问题被再度夸大了。随着油价逐渐企稳,就业市场改善,美联储决策者寄望通胀能够回归其指定的目标水平。   接受调查的经济学家的预期中值显示,美国1月季调后CPI月率料下降0.1%,上月也为下降0.1%。不过,核心CPI将受到更大关注,预计月率上升0.2%,12月份环比升幅为0.1%,不及预期;年率升幅料为2.1%。 (图片来源:FX168财经网)   联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三发布的会议纪要显示,许多美联储(FED)官员认为在全球经济增长放缓且市场动荡的情况下,经济增长前景面临的风险正在上升。   纪要表明,与会者们承认,能源价格进一步下跌和美元继续升值可能意味着通胀率将需要比预期更久时间升至2%。   近期全球经济增速放缓,以及股市急跌促使越来越多的投资人预计美联储会放弃去年12月发出的今年可能加息四次的暗示,会议纪要支持了上述种观点。   Commonwealth Foreign Exchange首席市场分析师Omer Esiner指出,美联储的政策决定仍要看数据表现,因此会紧盯即将公布的美国通胀、薪资和就业增长指标。   校对:长阳 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: