rubber upstream will be highly limited. In addition 哈尔滨理工大学教务处

Rubber: period is still hard to get rid of the weak spring festival, Tokyo rubber futures and Singapore commodity exchange RSS3 futures to the beginning of the January lows down on Friday, although the rebound, but still recorded a decline of about 4%. Considering the influence of the international market, the author is expected after the Spring Festival, the medium-term trend is still hard to get rid of the weak hujiao. The date of the upcoming low rubber by domestic and Southeast Asia rubber stop cutting effect, 3 to April is relatively small domestic natural rubber supply period, do not rule out the market again to stop cutting period as the subject of speculation. However, this year due to the high inventory even if there are pressing, speculation, rubber upstream will be highly limited. In addition, although before the Spring Festival in Thailand government purchasing raw materials and centralized warehouse to HuJiao rebound, but for the storage of 100 thousand tons annual production capacity of about 4000000 tons of Thailand is far too low. Historically, the Thailand government price support measures does not change the pattern of excess supply and demand of natural rubber, which is not conducive to the long-term production of rubber. The author believes that the natural rubber supply will not be a big problem, even if the low period came, existing stock market consumption is enough, so the rubber prices remains to be seen whether out of market demand downstream. Mix imports is still unabated since recently, high inventory has become the focus of rubber market game. Taking into account the customs from February 1st after the strict implementation of composite rubber in rubber content of not more than 88% regulations, Qingdao free trade zone at the end of January, 7 thousand and 300 tons of adhesive, compared to mid January fell 1 thousand and 500 tons, reducing 17.05%. The author expects that the import of composite rubber will continue to decrease, and part of it will be replaced by mixed glue. In addition, from the beginning of 2015, mix imports increased rapidly, many manufacturers to replace the imported mixed adhesive glue, the alternative is expected to appear larger, so the expected rubber imports this year with mixed glue at least flat with last year. Therefore, in the background of the dominant domestic stock has exceeded 50 million tons, taking into account the 2 month shipment to Hong Kong to focus, mix imports is not expected to reduce pressure on the stock market outlook, the increasing trend of rubber. In January 15, 2016, the Ministry of environmental protection and the Ministry of industry and industry jointly issued the "announcement on the implementation of the fifth phase motor vehicle emission standards". In accordance with the requirements, from April 1, 2016 onwards, the eastern part of Beijing City, Tianjin City, Hebei province and other 11 provinces, started the implementation of the standards of vehicle emission in five; since July 1, 2017, all regions of the country manufacturing, import, sale and registration of heavy-duty diesel vehicles must comply with national emission standards for five; the country since January 1, 2018, all the models are must comply with the national standard of five requirements." At present, the price of China’s five products and the country’s four products are basically flat, and the country’s five ahead of schedule is expected to be in the first half of the country’s four commercial vehicles to bring ahead of the purchase volume, which will enhance the tire enterprises to some extent the amount of rubber. However, the key to a better demand is whether the heavy truck market is better or not, and ultimately the improvement of the macroeconomy. In summary, rubber supply and demand pattern has not changed, the possibility of a sharp reduction in the supply side is weak to end consumer.

橡胶:中期仍难摆脱弱势   春节期间,东京橡胶期货及新加坡商品交易所的RSS3期货均向1月初的低点回落,虽然上周五有所反弹,但是仍录得4%左右的跌幅。考虑到国际市场的影响,笔者预计,春节后沪胶中期走势仍难摆脱弱势。   天胶的低产期即将来临   受国内和东南亚天胶停割影响,3―4月是国内天胶供给相对较少的时期,不排除市场再次把停割期作为炒作题材。不过,今年由于国内高库存的压制,即使有炒作,天胶的上行高度也将有限。   此外,尽管春节前泰国政府收储原料以及仓单集中带动了沪胶反弹,但10万吨收储对于年产400多万吨的泰国来说实在太少。从历史上看,泰国政府的保价托市措施并不能改变天胶的供求过剩格局,这将不利于天胶中长期去产能。笔者认为,天胶供给不会出现大的问题,即使低产期来到,已有库存也足够市场消费,所以天胶价格能否走出熊市依然要看下游需求。   混合胶进口总量仍不减   近期以来,高库存成为天胶市场博弈的焦点。考虑到海关从2月1日以后严格执行复合橡胶中生胶含量不超过88%的规定,青岛保税区1月底复合胶为0.73万吨,较1月中旬下滑0.15万吨,减少17.05%。笔者预计,后市复合胶进口继续减少,部分将被混合胶所取代。   此外,从2015年开始,混合胶进口量增加较快,生产商多用进口混合胶来替代复合胶,更大规模的替代性有望出现,所以预期今年含混合胶的天胶进口量至少与去年持平。因此,在国内显性库存已经突破50万吨的大背景下,考虑到2月船货集中到港,混合胶进口总量预计不减,后市库存对天胶走势的压力有增无减。   下游需求缺乏重大提振   2016年1月15日,环保部和工信部共同发布了《关于实施第五阶段机动车排放标准的公告》。按照要求,“从2016年4月1日起,北京市、天津市、河北省等东部11省市,开始实施机动车国五排放标准;自2017年7月1日起,全国所有地区制造、进口、销售和注册登记的重型柴油车均须符合国五排放标准;全国自2018年1月1日起,所有车型都须符合国五标准要求。”   目前来看,国五产品的价格与国四产品基本持平,并且国五的提前实施预计会在上半年为国四商用车带来提前购买量,这将在一定程度上提升轮胎企业的用胶量。不过,需求能否好转的关键在于重卡市场是否好转,最终就是看宏观经济的好转程度。   综上所述,天胶供需格局并未改变,供给端大幅减产的可能性不大,消费端疲软难以改变,如果宏观经济方面没有出现重大利好,即使到了东南亚停割期,也难有大幅反弹的基础。笔者认为,受供给过剩影响,中期或维持熊市基调,建议短期以振荡思路看待天胶走势。(作者单位:中大期货)   版权声明:本网所有内容,凡来源:“期货日报”的所有文字、图片和音视频资料,版权均属期货日报所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布 发表。已经本网协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明"稿件来源:期货日报",违者本网将依法追究责任。相关的主题文章: