deputy general manager of Haitong Securities chief economist Li Xunlei said on 18 2016 湖南建材高等专科学校

Li Xunlei: Haitong stock market this year is still a lack of opportunity will not rise trend of sina finance Level2:A shares of sina finance: App speed Kanpan live on-line blogger to tutor, deputy general manager of Haitong Securities chief economist Li Xunlei said on 18 2016, China’s economy as a whole will slow down, the trend of the stock market is still a lack of opportunity, there will be up there. On the same day, he made the above statement on the signing ceremony of the strategic cooperation signing between the Shan Shan fund and Haitong Securities FOF project and the 2016 Forum on market and capital allocation. From the "three carriages" to promote the economy, at present, in addition to the relatively stable consumption, exports in the first quarter of this year showed negative growth, investment growth has also dropped." Li Xunlei said, from the international point of view, in addition to the weak recovery of the U.S. economy, other countries are still in the process of slow down. "At present, investment in real estate and manufacturing is declining." Li Xunlei said that last year, real estate investment growth rate is only 1%, close to zero, visible real estate investment in the economic pull effect is declining. Today, the only reliable thing is infrastructure investment, the railway, highway, irrigation, water conservancy and other aspects of infrastructure investment increased significantly, the recent rise in the stock market. For the most important "human" factor of economic growth, Li Xunlei believes that when a country’s economic growth is declining, the growth rate of urbanization will drop substantially. At present, the population of our country has appeared aging phenomenon, whether it is the flow rate of the population, or the labor age structure of the population, has changed in 2010. At the same time, real estate investment growth also peaked in 2010, began to decline, which will lead to reduced real estate sales, consumption of mass consumer goods will also have a negative impact. This year, the pressure is indeed there, first, the devaluation of the RMB, but now this pressure is small, because the fed further increase interest rate will become smaller; two is due to the supply side structural reform, monetary policy will not be more relaxed than last year." Li Xunlei said that in January M2 growth rate has risen to 14%, liquidity has been very abundant, the domestic will not drop quasi. Although China’s economy is expected to slow down, but Li Xunlei believes that this is not necessarily a bad thing for the stock market, "last year, the economy also slowed down, but the stock market is still active". He also believes that in the first quarter of last year accounted for a higher proportion of GDP financial, GDP pull larger, the first quarter of this year, GDP growth rate will decline, the performance of the following quarters will be improved. The overall trend for the stock market this year, Li Xunlei believes that in the enterprise is difficult to profit growth, and a decline in the interest rate risk investment preference of residents under the premise of limited downside, the domestic stock market trend is still a lack of opportunities, rose does not appear on the market inflection point "phenomenon, especially to prudent judgment, I think it should follow the trend". Under the economic slowdown expectations, Li Xunlei is still optimistic about the development of the financial industry. "Our financial management from the deposit era through the real estate era, and now into the financial era, funds in the financial agglomeration." Li Xunlei said that last year’s financial contribution to China’s GDP is very large, the contribution rate of 20 in the first three quarters of the theory

海通李迅雷:股市今年仍缺乏趋势性机会 不会大涨 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导   海通证券副总经理、首席经济学家李迅雷18日表示,2016年我国经济整体仍会趋缓,股市仍缺乏趋势性机会,不会有大涨情况出现。   他是在当天举行的“友山基金与海通证券FOF项目战略合作签约仪式暨2016年市场与资本配置论坛”上作上述表示的。   “从拉动经济的‘三驾马车’来看,目前除了消费比较稳定外,今年一季度出口呈现负增长,投资增速也出现了回落。”李迅雷说,从国际上来看,除美国经济弱复苏外,其他国家经济还处在缓慢下行过程中。   “目前房地产、制造业投资都在下滑。”李迅雷称,去年房地产投资增速只有1%,接近于零,可见房地产投资对经济拉动效应在下降。如今唯一能靠得住的就是基建投资,在铁路、公路、农田水利等方面基建投资大幅增加的预期下,近期股票市场出现上涨。   对于经济增长最重要的“人”的要素,李迅雷认为,当一个国家经济增速下降时,城市化率增长水平会大幅下降。目前我国人口出现了老龄化现象,无论是人口的流动速度,还是人口的劳动年龄结构,都已在2010年发生了转向。同时,房地产投资增速也在2010年达到峰值,开始下降,这会导致房地产销量减少,对大众消费品的消费也会产生负面影响。   “今年压力确实有,一是年初人民币贬值,但现在这个压力小了,因为美联储进一步加息的可能性变小;二是由于要搞供给侧结构性改革,货币政策不会比去年更加宽松。”李迅雷表示,1月M2同比增速已经升至14%,流动性已经很充裕,国内近期不会降准。   虽然预计我国经济会趋缓,但李迅雷认为,这对股市未必是坏事,“去年经济也出现放缓,但股票市场仍然活跃”。他同时认为,去年一季度金融占GDP的比重较高,对GDP拉动较大,今年一季度GDP同比增速会出现下降,后面几个季度的表现会有好转。   对于今年股市的整体走势,李迅雷认为,在企业盈利很难增长,居民投资风险偏好下降以及利率下行空间有限的前提下,国内股市仍缺乏趋势性机会,不会出现大涨现象,“对市场拐点的判断尤其要审慎,我觉得还是应该追随趋势”。   在经济趋缓预期下,李迅雷依然看好金融行业发展。“我们的理财从存款时代走过房地产时代,现在又步入金融时代,资金在向金融集聚。”李迅雷说,去年金融对我国GDP的贡献非常大,前三季度贡献率达到20%,其中第一季度最高时达30%,且从交易量来讲,去年A股的交易金额占到全球交易金额的1 3。从供给角度讲,利率在往下走,资本市场融资成本比较低,也有利于金融行业发展。将来随着人口老龄化,有更多的房地产变现出来,而这部分资金还是会投向金融行业。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: