looks beautiful&quot 大富翁之异时代风云

Japan’s economy is facing a "hidden bomb", no solution is a disaster – data released by the Ministry of Finance and economy, Japan, August 30th, Japan’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3% in July, down from 3.1% in June and the previous expectations. Japan’s current unemployment rate has dropped to its lowest level since 1995. The Ministry of general affairs of Japan pointed out that the improvement of the unemployment rate is mainly due to the fact that the population is decreasing and the economy is slowly recovering, and the enterprises are becoming increasingly understaffed and the number of recruitment continues to increase, thus increasing the number of new candidates. The problem, however, is that in addition to the unemployment rate, the other data in Japan are "catastrophic"". Wage increases slowly tighten the purse to live according to Bloomberg, the Japanese government announced on August 15 8 data show that Japan’s second quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of only 0.05%, calculated at an annual rate of 0.2% growth, the increase was lower than expected? Weak economic data to an already criticized "Andouble economics again questioned? Although this data is still maintained positive growth, but it means that the efficacy of Japanese negative interest rates this medicine has began to disperse, also let the Japanese economic growth in the second half of the more whirling direction. To make matters worse, the BoJ’s data released in August 30th showed that Japan’s household spending fell by 0.5% in July, a decline of 1.5%, and has fallen for the fifth month in a row. Retail data, retail sales in July decreased by 0.2% over the same period last year. Although the Japanese labor market is still tight, the yen began to appreciate at the beginning of this year, hitting the country’s exports and reducing the willingness to invest. At the forthcoming September meeting, the BoJ will have to consider more monetary stimulus policies. Yoshiki Shinke, the economist at the first Institute of life economics in Tokyo, Japan, said, "on the whole, Japan’s wage growth is slow and consumer spending is still very tired.". Most families tighten their wallets and spend their days!" Is unemployment rate down? Just looks beautiful Zero Hedge according to foreign media reports, according to the conventional theory of economics, when Japan’s unemployment rate is reduced to below the average level of the country, the "hard" with the country should see is household spending rise and vibrant economy growth. However, the reality of Japan is not the case. In fact, the decline in Japan’s unemployment rate in July is just "looks beautiful". The reality is that Japan is facing many industries including manufacturing, shrinking, there has been a growing number of Japanese aged men joined the Japanese long-term unemployment in the ranks, they either do not have the ability to deal with the change of domestic industry, or is "too lazy", not willing to take the initiative to adapt to changes in the labor market the. Here’s a chart from data released by the Japan Statistical Office. Since the bubble burst in 1990s, Japan’s jobless men, 25-44 years of age, have jumped 5 times, in June this year!

日本经济面临“隐性炸弹” 不解决就是灾难-搜狐财经   日本总务省8月30日公布的数据显示,7月日本经季节调整后的失业率降至3.0%,低于6月3.1%以及此前的预期。日本目前的失业率降到了自1995年来的最低点。日本总务省指出,失业率的改善,这主要是因为在人口减少与经济缓步复苏的形势下,企业日益觉得人手不足,招聘数量持续增加,由此推动新就职人数增多。   然而,问题在于,除了失业率这一个数据在“改善”之外,日本其它各项数据简直堪称“灾难”。 工资上涨缓慢 得勒紧钱包过日子   据彭博社分析,日本内阁府于8月15日公布的数据显示,日本第二季度实际国内生产总值(GDP)环比仅增长0.05%,按年率计算增长0.2%,增幅均低于预期?疲弱经济数据让早已备受诟病的“安倍经济学”再遭质疑? 这一数据虽然仍然保持着正增长,但却意味着日本负利率这剂“猛药”所带来的药效开始消散,也让下半年日本经济增长的方向更加扑朔迷离。   更糟糕的是,日本央行8月30日公布的数据显示,日本7月家庭支出同比下降0.5%(预测下降1.5%),已经是连续第5个月下降。零售数据方面,7月零售销售较上年同期下降0.2%。   虽然日本劳动力市场仍然吃紧,在从今年年初开始日元开始升值,极大地打击了本国出口,也降低了企业投资的意愿。在即将在九月召开的会议上,日本央行将不得不考虑采取更多的货币刺激政策。   位于日本东京的第一生命经济研究所经济学家新家义贵(Yoshiki Shinke)表示,“总体来看,日本工资增长缓慢,消费者支出依然非常疲乏。多数家庭都勒紧了钱包在过日子!” 失业率数据降低了? 只是“看上去很美”   据外媒Zero Hedge报道,依据常规经济学理论,当日本失业率降低到该国平均水平以下时,这个以“勤奋”著称的国家应当看到的是家庭支出上升和经济充满活力的增长。然而,现实的日本并非如此。   事实上,日本7月失业率下降只是“看上去很美”而已。实际情况是,日本当前面临着包括制造业在内的众多行业的萎缩,已经有越来越多的日本适龄工作男性加入日本长期失业的队伍中来了,他们要么是没有能力应对该国产业的变化,要么就是“太懒”,不愿意主动去适应劳动市场的变化。   下面这个图表来自日本统计局公布的数据,从20世纪90年代日本经济泡沫破裂以来,日本25-44岁这个年龄段的失业男性已经暴涨了5倍,今年6月在这个年龄段中失业的男性高达1470万人,创下了48年以来最低水平。 (图表1)   男性就业人数的减少对于女性来说是个“好消息”,因为随着男性就业率的降低,日本女性的就业率呈现了持续上升的态势。然而这里的问题在于,虽然和男性相比,女性拥有更强的适应力,她们也不是“赢家”。原因就在于,女性由于家庭等各方面因素的拖累,更愿意做兼职工作而非全职,因而女性的收入相对较低,福利也比不上全职工作。   下图来自高盛全球投资研究,它显示日本人均工资呈下降态势。 (图表2)   老年人和家庭主妇是日本主要的兼职劳动者。   即使日本失业率在7月份达到了21年来最低水平,适龄男性失业率的不断上升对于日本首相安倍晋三来说无疑是个巨大的灾难。近年来,安倍一直不遗余力地尝试解决日本的劳动力短缺问题。这个问题被众多经济学家称为“隐形炸弹”。   大和研究所经济学家Akane Yamaguchi认为,“这枚‘隐形炸弹’非常隐蔽,安倍政府必须将之铲除。” 制造业从业人员减少 进入恶性循环 (图3)   从上图可以看出,自2002年1月到今年6月这段时间内,日本制造业从业人数一直在持续降低。今年6月,该人数降到了1030万人,而十年前该数据还是1170万人。相比之下,从事医疗、护理、福利相关行业的人数增加了270万人。2014年日本服务业就业率上升了74%。   大和研究所经济学家Akane Yamaguchi分析表示,“问题在于,日本没有任何针对制造业从业人员的培训项目,所以他们一旦失去了制造业的工作机会,让他们再次找到工作将会非常艰难。这是一个恶性循环。”   在今年3月份,日本央行在一份研究报告中对此已经做过阐述,“日本失业超过一年的人口更加集中于25-44岁男性这个群体中。分析师发现,在该群体中失业的男性人数在2014年已经攀升到了31万人,和上世纪90年代相比已经暴涨了5倍。其中一个原因就是,男性适应力较差,更愿意从事同一行业的工作。”   这就是一个恶性循环,这个问题不仅仅影响劳动力市场,导致男性失业人数猛增,同样也加剧了日本正面临的人口挑战—急剧老龄化和超低出生率对日本经济增长造成更多拖累。 (图表4)   根据日本明治安田生命保险(Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance)6月发布的一份数据,二十几岁的日本男性中只有29%的人愿意结婚,而三年前这一数据还是67%。   而日本男性更愿意保持单身的一大原因,就是他们没有足够多的收入来支持家庭。   回顾整个问题,日本要延缓这个“痛苦”的人口挑战问题,日本央行必须考虑“直升机撒钱”,无偿给每个家庭钱。如果不采取这一政策的话,日本基本上快遭遇“末日”了。   (本文编译自外媒Zero Hedge报道)   本文系易读财经独家原创编译稿件,没有授权请勿转载!相关的主题文章: